Newsdirect Wales’ Seb Bench considers what we can expect politically in 2022. He has questions. A lot of questions. 

It is traditional for many of us to spend the festive period reminiscing on the past year and promising next year will be different. We pledge to get to the gym in January as we digest our Christmas dinners and ponder ones who got away on New Year’s Eve. Or at least we might in a normal year. They’ll be no New Year’s Eve club nights this year and who knows if gyms will even be open throughout January. Like last year, I suspect many of us will just be hoping next year sees the end of the pandemic.

Levelling Up

This year, might it be Wales as a country that is pondering a ‘glow up’ in the new year? The UK Government’s Levelling Up White Paper is now expected to be published in January 2022. Will the White Paper include the transformational investment communities like the Valleys were promised throughout the Brexit debate? Can UK Government schemes on issues like employability and skills work if they’re not integrated with wider Welsh Government policies? There are plenty of reserved areas the Welsh Government would prefer the UK Government would spend their money on, from Universal Credit to rail electrification. Would the UK Government be better off spending money in these areas than picking an argument with the Welsh Government on devolved powers? Can the Levelling Up White Paper make a difference if it is overshadowed by debates over devolution and concerns the White Paper is a vehicle to boost support for the union at the expense of independence? There are more than enough questions about the white paper right now, we can only hope January brings some answers.

Back to the (constitutional) future

Beyond the White Paper, Wales is engaged in serious debates over its constitutional future and the workings of its Parliament. The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales is due to produce an interim report by the end of 2022, with a full report by the end of 2023.The Commission will look at the full range of options for Wales’ constitutional future, including independence. By this time next year, we should have an idea of the kind of model for Wales’ constitutional future the Commission will be recommending. There are of course no guarantees those recommendations will be accepted by any political parties. Although the presence of heavyweight former politicians Kirsty Williams, Leanne Wood and Albert Owen may make it harder for the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru or Labour to reject any proposals.

Constitutional issues are often decried as a distraction from the ‘real issues’ facing a nation. In fact, that was the criticism levelled by the Welsh Conservatives against the commission. But like it or not, constitutional issues are likely to be big issues for the next year and beyond. Independence is a constant theme in Scotland, but the peaks and troughs in support for Welsh Independence cannot be ignored. These constitutional issues are used by parties to win votes, create dividing lines and foster a sense of identity amongst their supporters. Independence remains the primary dividing lines between Scottish political parties, whilst the Conservative UK Government continues to aggressively pursue unionism as part of its own electoral strategy. Political parties may decry constitutional debates like those sparked by this commission, but we can expect parties of all colours to campaign on the issues it raises.

Whilst the Independent Commission is working on their Interim report, the Senedd’s Special Purpose Committee on Senedd Reform will be finalising their recommendations, which are due by the end of May. The committee will consider the conclusions previously reached by the Committee on Senedd Electoral Reform in the Fifth Senedd, chaired by now Constitutional Commission Co-Chair Laura McAllister. Labour and Plaid’s Co-operation Agreement commits to supporting a Senedd with 80-100 members elected by a voting system that is at least as proportional as the current system. Therefore, it’s likely this Special Purpose Committee will make recommendations broadly in line with the McAllister review. Labour and Plaid Cymru have also committed to introducing a Senedd Reform Bill 12 to 18 months after the report is published, meaning reforms should be passed in time for the next Senedd elections.

Legislative agenda

2022 will be the first full year of the Sixth Senedd, meaning we can expect the Welsh Government to fully sink their teeth into their legislative agenda. When outlining his updated Programme for Government to the Senedd earlier this year, Mark Drakeford highlighted extending free school meals, expanding childcare and action on second homes as his three immediate priorities. We’ve already heard some announcements on these areas this year, but can expect significant progress in 2022. The First Minister also discussed progress on the health and social care workforce, a new national music service, eliminating violence against women and reforming council tax in his Senedd statement on the Programme for Government. There have also been announcements in these four areas already, but we can expect some further progress next year.

All politics is local

Welsh politics should be busy on the doorstep as well as the Siambr as Welsh local elections are held in May. The elections will be the first such elections held under the expanded franchise, with 16- and 17-year-olds and foreign citizens living in Wales now able to vote. This will make turnout particularly interesting at this election. The course of the pandemic will decide whether the election campaign is as curtailed as it was for the Senedd election.

Welsh Labour enjoyed a surprisingly strong performance at this year’s Senedd election, whilst the Conservative party faces significant challenges across the UK. The last Welsh local elections in 2017 were held only a month before the general election and saw Labour lose councils and seats but remain the dominant party in Welsh local government. Will they regain some of those councils and councillors next year or will the Conservatives rediscover the formula that led to their successful 2019 general election performance?

Plaid Cymru will be hoping to build the kind of local government base outside of their core support that gives them a chance of winning new constituencies in the next Westminster and Senedd elections. It will be worth following whether they focus on Labour heartlands like the Rhondda that were key targets under Leanne Wood’s leadership. It will also be interesting to see whether their Cooperation Agreement with Labour affects them at the polls.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats survived this year’s Senedd election, returning one MS in party leader Jane Dodds. They’ll be hoping these local elections are the start of their recovery. But are the votes they’ve lost in general and Senedd elections in former heartlands since the last local elections a sign they’re on course to lose councillors?

Recovering from the pandemic and the continued implementation of Brexit are likely to dominate much of Welsh politics this year, making it another busy year. However, once May’s local elections are concluded, Wales doesn’t have another scheduled set of elections until the 2024 general election. In theory, that should mean Welsh politicians can get down to the nitty-gritty of governing, scrutinising and legislating. Whether that proves to be the case is another matter entirely.

In the meantime, the public can look forward to the publication of the first set of results from the census in late Spring next year. This data will be particularly useful to local government as they plan services and look to distribute funding following the local government settlement. The data will also likely be gratefully received by academics, the third sector and Wales’ four statutory commissioners as they carry out their work next year. The census will show how Wales has changed over the course of the last decade and on some level, will reveal the kind of country Wales has become. Yet there are some questions the census will not be able to answer. If 2022 is finally the year we see the end of the pandemic, what country will Wales be once it has returned to some degree of normality or found it’s new normal? These are the kinds of questions leaders in Wales and across the UK will have to be answering once they finally no longer need to focus all their energies on pandemic crisis management.

Despite the frivolous start to this article, no-one is expecting Wales to have a ‘glow up’ in 2022. But the Welsh people are looking to their representatives to address serious, long-standing issues of poverty and inequality in communities, attainment gaps in schools and low productivity in the Welsh economy. Not to mention the small matter of recovering from and dealing with the long-term consequences of the pandemic. If every tier of government in Wales can make a difference in these four areas, Wales may just be in a better place this time next year.

 

 

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